Console Wars: A shift in the industry?

GDC ’07 has finally come and gone. While the conference wasn’t as eventful as some might have hoped, it certainly has had a huge effect on the video game industry and on the current status of each of the three console developers.

While Nintendo didn’t have much to announce in the way of new features or games on either the Wii or DS, Microsoft seemed to have the support of a significant number of big-name developers at the conference; two of them being Peter Molyneux and Hironobu Sakaguchi. Both Fable 2 and Blue Dragon looked very impressive and considering neither Super Mario Galaxy nor Phantom Hourglass got much of a showing, the two 360 games along with Lost Odyssey really got a chance to shine. Personally, I wet myself upon reading about Molyneux’s Fable 2 presentation and the focus on love, emotions and of course – the dog.

However, both Microsoft and Nintendo combined couldn’t possibly have topped Sony’s presentation at GDC this year. Phil Harrison’s keynote was a real blast and PlayStation Home looks and sounds mind-blowing. The sheer concept is innovation at its very best and neither Microsoft’s “The games are the stars” nor Nintendo’s “We chose not to take this direction” responses sounded very impressive or smart in the face of Sony’s ambitious online plans.

Home is one of those announcements that come along once in a blue moon. Something that makes you think … that makes you wonder. Something that makes you look back at everything that’s happened in the gaming biz for the past half year and say, “Hey, does all of this really matter?”

I’m referring to the horrible publicity Sony’s been getting of late, of course. Sure, they made some stupid moves and I’m not going to deny the fact that they deserved the spanking they got from the media. Let’s also not forget the fact that the Wii has been perceived incredibly well by gamers and also by the media and the public in general. Developers are starting to warm up to the console and we hear news of some obscure new Wii project every other day.

In the mean time, Microsoft seems to have been having an incredibly easy time all throughout. Developers love it, tons of Western gamers love it, and I can point out at least two big-name websites whose opinions are skewed in Microsoft’s favour. The 360 has a huge head start and just as of a month ago, it looked like Microsoft was all set to win the race this time around.

Again ... does any of this really matter? Home's announcement and Nintendo's endeavours of late have made me look back at everything we've seen these past few months and made me view the gaming industry from a perspective I hadn't considered before. This could get a little lengthy, so make the jump to read on.

All this began last night after I spoke at length with Jelster and then Chris Taran (huge thanks to both of you!) regarding the announcements made at GDC and how they could potentially – no, make that how they will change the current state of the gaming industry and how everything we’ve seen and heard so far may not really be as big as everyone initially thought.

Is 10 million really that big a deal?

Let’s begin with Microsoft’s constant reminders of “10 million 360s sold in one year”. Well, here’s news for you: 10 million in more than one year is pretty damn shitty if you think about what Microsoft needed to make the jump from 6 to 10 million. Consider this. The 360 had an entire year’s head start. The console’s only real competition was the PS2, a “last-gen” system. Of course, there was the GameCube, but is that even worth mentioning at this point?


The 360 also had a buttload of awesome games on it that sold well after their respective releases – Oblivion, Dead Rising, Saints Row, Xbox Live Arcade titles, backward compatible games … I could go on and on. Of course, even this wasn’t enough to get them past the 6 or 7 million mark. They needed Gears of War to make it past 10 million. Oh, and let’s not forget the fact that the 360 has been released in far more territories than the PS3 and Wii have. Like I said; shitty.

The distinguished competition

PlayStation Home made a huge impact at GDC this year. Sony deserves a huge round of applause for timing the debut of Home so perfectly. The concept of Home is mind-blowing and judging by Sony’s commitment to provide to provide a “truly next-gen” online experience, I’d say Xbox Live isn’t going to pose much of a threat once Sony gets their online infrastructure in place.


This is where Microsoft’s head start becomes a double-edged sword. On the one hand, their decision to release the 360 an entire year before the PS3 meant they could advantage of the fact that it was the only “next-gen” console on the market for a whole year. But on the other hand, what do they have to show for it? 10 million units sold in one year? Gears of War – a game that had trouble standing up to Final Fantasy XII and Twilight Princess (both “last-gen” games, mind you) – as their killer app?

The wild card

You know what’s impressive? 5 million units sold in 4 months. This generation’s console war is seeing something it has never seen before. A wild card.

A system that takes everything that you thought about the gaming industry was true, crumples it up into a little ball and tosses it out the window. The Wii is catching up. Fast. Almost every week, the gaming community hears of some obscure top-secret Wii project being developed by some big name developer, scheduled for release either in late ’07 or ’08. 5 systems million sold in 4 months and tons more that will fly off shelves as soon as Nintendo can speed up production.


The console has the advantage of being different. That’s something neither Microsoft nor Sony can take away from it. It’s cheap to buy, it’s cheap to develop for, it’s easy to develop for and it’s very different. It gives studios a chance to stand out in a big way. It also has the potential to expand the gaming market itself, which means the console doesn’t need to steal Sony or Microsoft’s market share. It can create its own. You've heard it a million times. Not many will own a PS3 and a 360. They'll own either of those two and they'll own a Wii.

Bringing it all to a close…

Let’s take a minute to think about all this. The 360 released a year in advance. As a result, the system is less powerful as the PS3 and isn’t different or as appealing to the masses as the Wii. Xbox Live Arcade was a one-of-a-kind service up until now, but Sony’s online infrastructure (which is going to be free, mind you) looks all set to blow it out of the water.

Microsoft is also releasing the “Zephyr” Xbox 360 shortly, which is going to have a bigger hard-drive and the built-in HDMI hardware support. This means they can’t release another console for the next couple of years because that wouldn’t do much other than piss people off.

Here’s how I see it. The majority of 2007 will belong to Microsoft. The ’07 holiday season will belong to Nintendo; there is absolutely no doubt about that. PlayStation Home will debut in fall ’07 as well. 2008 is when the PS3 will take off and when developers will really start to tap into the Wii’s potential.


What will the 360 be? A jack of all trades? I’m thinking Microsoft isn’t going to be able to hold on to their lead for much longer. The console will never be accepted by Japan no matter how gargantuan their efforts might be. The Japanese gaming market will always belong to Sony and Nintendo and there isn’t much Microsoft can do about it. For instance, I don’t see Square Enix developing any huge, epic "Eastern" role-playing games for the 360. Why should they? By the time the title is ready, the PS3's install base will be fairly large and millions of Japanese gamers will own PS3s, not Xbox 360s.

As for the West, Nintendo still hasn’t taken advantage of the fact that the Wii helps people lose weight. But that doesn’t mean they’re not going to do it. All that is coming, and mark my words … when their weight-loss promotions hit North America, Wii sales are going to skyrocket. That’s going to hurt Microsoft’s standing in the West considerably and the PS3’s killer apps hitting in ’08 isn’t going to make things any easier.

All is not as it seems in the world of gaming. The gaming industry is undoubtedly the most fast-moving, dynamic industry in existence today. What’s cool today is lame tomorrow. While it might look like Microsoft is all set to win the war, I’m seeing more of a PS3 > Wii > Microsoft or a Wii > PS3 > Microsoft kind of situation a year or two down the line.